Y-chromosomal and Mitochondrial Haplotypes
What is the evidential strength? The product rule is out: linkage.
Is the counting rule ok? Some use the counting rule augmented with
confidence intervals obviously unnecessary.
Better than counting
Can we do better than counting? A paper by Krawczak et al, discussing
Y-haplotypes, says yes we can. I think that is true and is the biggest and
most interesting point.
I don't find the "self-validation" argument in the paper clear or
convincing, and it seems to rely on an idealized model of populations.
Further, I of course disagree with the "frequency distribution" approach.
I am working on a paper with a simpler and easier to validate approach
that also improves on the counting rule.
Update June 2009 (above is August 2003!): Paper submitted
and draft posted on line.
Update: 2010 paper introducing and validating Kappa method
— Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics The evidential value of a rare haplotype
and more general and more readable 2014 paper —
Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.