Y-chromosomal and Mitochondrial Haplotypes


What is the evidential strength? The product rule is out: linkage. Is the counting rule ok? Some use the counting rule augmented with confidence intervals – obviously unnecessary.

Better than counting

Can we do better than counting? A paper by Krawczak et al, discussing Y-haplotypes, says yes we can. I think that is true and is the biggest and most interesting point. I don't find the "self-validation" argument in the paper clear or convincing, and it seems to rely on an idealized model of populations. Further, I of course disagree with the "frequency distribution" approach.

I am working on a paper with a simpler and easier to validate approach that also improves on the counting rule.

Update June 2009 (above is August 2003!): Paper submitted and draft posted on line.

Update: 2010 paper introducing and validating Kappa method — Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics – The evidential value of a rare haplotype and more general and more readable 2014 paper — Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.